Declining Vulnerability to Temperature-related Mortality in London over the 20th Century

摘要: The degree to which population vulnerability outdoor temperature is reduced by improvements in infrastructure, technology, and general health has an important bearing on what realistically can be expected with future changes climate. Using autoregressive Poisson models adjustment for season, the authors analyzed weekly mortality London, United Kingdom, during four periods (1900-1910, 1927-1937, 1954-1964, 1986-1996) quantify changing seasonal temperature-related throughout 20th century. Mortality patterns showed epidemiologic transition over century from high childhood low towards a predominance of chronic disease later periods. ratio winter deaths nonwinter was 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.34) 1900-1910, 1.54 CI: 1.42, 1.68) 1.48 1.35, 1.64) 1.22 1.13, 1.31) 1986-1996. temperature-mortality gradient cold diminished progressively: increase per 1 C drop below 15 degrees 2.52% 2.00, 3.03), 2.34% 1.72, 2.96), 1.64% (1.10, 2.19), 1.17% 0.88, 1.45), respectively, Corresponding attributable fractions were 12.5%, 11.2%, 8.7%, 5.4%. Heat also There progressive reduction century, despite aging population. This trend likely reflect social, environmental, behavioral, health-care factors implications assessment burdens heat mortality.