Chemical contribution to future tropical ozone change in the lower stratosphere

摘要: Abstract. The future evolution of tropical ozone in a changing climate is investigated by analysing time slice simulations made with the chemistry–climate model EMAC. Between present and end 21st century significant increase found globally for upper stratosphere extratropical lower stratosphere, while decreases significantly up to 30%. Previous studies have shown that this decrease connected changes upwelling. Here dominant role transport confirmed, but it addition chemical production destruction do contribute stratosphere. 50 30 hPa dynamically induced 22% amplified 11–19% due reduced production. This counteracted loss causing an 15–28%. At 70 large (−52%) enhanced photochemical (+28%) slightly increased (−5%) loss. It lowermost mainly overlying column at higher altitudes as consequence chemically column. attributed between caused slowing ClOx NOx cycles. below can be efficiency HOx cycle. determining trend region depend on net also reduces amount transported within air parcel.