Following-Up on Uncertain Environmental Assessment Predictions: The Case of Offshore Oil Projects and Seabirds Off Newfoundland and Labrador

摘要: Environmental assessments (EAs) predict project environmental effects with varying degrees of certainty. Articulating prediction uncertainty and linking it to EA follow-up is a best practice for reducing uncertainty. This study examines predictions from Canadian oil projects off Newfoundland Labrador between 1985 2012 concerning seabirds, the valued ecosystem component identified as most vulnerable exploitation in an area frequented by millions migratory birds. We asked if these predictions: (a) reported ratings; (b) those reporting medium high ratings whether were addressed follow-up; (c) was reduced reflected subsequent EAs. Prediction rare uncertainties not resolved through follow-up. Assumptions negligible or low on seabirds offshore gas extraction have been supported decades sustaining