Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives

摘要: Long-range energy scenarios are commonly used to inform national policy decisions. Although the scenario approach aims expand spectrum of futures considered, in past have not been diverse enough include less expected real-world developments. We use a bottom-up system model EXPANSE with Modeling Generate Alternatives (MGA) assess diversity existing ensemble multi-organization, multi-model Swiss electricity supply scenarios. show that both for 2035 and 2050 cover well various possibilities deployment individual generation technologies terms installed capacity or produced electricity. When analyzing as whole, we find there is lack high demand greater renewable occurring simultaneously, negligible negative share net import. In 2050, also depict conservative new technologies, especially solar PV. propose six additional be included increase achieve better understanding future uncertainties.