A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using time series ARIMA-Intervention Model
作者： Min-Su Kim , Kee-Woong Kim , Sung-Sik Park
DOI: 10.12985/KSAA.2012.20.1.063
关键词:
摘要: The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect intervention variables which may affect air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights and anticipate flights. forecasts are conducted through ARIMA-Intervention Model selecting five such as 2002 World Cup games, SARS, novel swine-origin influenza A, Yeonpyeongdo bombardment Japan big earthquake. result revealed that risk factor threat war a negative incident occurred in Korea has impact on due response aversion by users. However, when local natural disasters (earthquakes, etc) occurring neighboring courtiers global outbreak an epidemic gave negligible Korea, would have positive find alternative rational expectation customers. Also we realize mega-event Korea-Japan games reduced short-term period unlike perception it will increase demands
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