Incorporating incidence information within the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package framework: a study based on simulated incidence assay data.

摘要: OBJECTIVES The objective of this study is to extend the UNAIDS incidence estimation model, Estimation and Projection Package (EPP), so that it can incorporate data from assays. METHODS We propose combining likelihood assay with other data, in a manner consistent biomarker-based estimator using data. Two calibrating parameters specify performance assays: false recent rate mean duration infection. then use synthetic based on prevalence obtained antenatal clinic surveillances, some cases household surveys, 24 countries, examine impact including under circumstances wherein imply same or different as inferred alone, incorrect for are used. RESULTS Using addition improve estimate by narrowing uncertainty intervals derived HIV estimates, providing information levels trends were not apparent alone. However, effect relatively modest if sample size survey small results be biased known accurately. CONCLUSION Incorporating assays proposed has potential estimates. Further work will more detail which contribution would most valuable.