Scenario development in China's electricity sector

摘要: Abstract The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions resource depletion. In 2005, the generation in China resulted 2290 million metric tonnes carbon dioxide (approximately 53% nation's total) required 779 million coal 50% total consumption). These figures are expected increase with growth. order gauge range which fuel consumption CO 2 could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by authors (published (vol.) this journal). application analysis shows that under business as usual (BAU) scenario, contribute upwards 56% energy related 2020. Meanwhile, also increase, growing nearly 60% national demand However, variations number key drivers produce significant deviation from BAU scenario. With accelerated output, even greater technological advances potential bring natural stream, would rise 10% above BAU. Alternatively, scenario where economy grows at tempered pace, less investment be available for advanced technologies, developing infrastructure, or nuclear energy. reduced thereby countered efficiency higher contribution coal.