Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

摘要: We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate prepare for the effects future global change. In this study, we investigated potential effect winter climate upon salt marsh mangrove forest foundation species southeastern United States. Our research addresses following three questions: (1) What is relationship between presence abundance forests relative marshes; (2) How vulnerable marshes change-induced range expansion; (3) distribution under alternative scenarios? developed simple climate-based models predict using observed temperature data (1970–2000) habitat data. results identify thresholds marsh–mangrove interactions highlight coastal areas States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, parts Florida) where relatively small changes intensity frequency extreme events could cause dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural functional form poleward migration displacement. The implications these marsh-to-mangrove conversions poorly understood, but would likely include associated fish wildlife populations supply some goods services.