National intelligence: A tool for political forecasting and the forecasting of rare events ☆

摘要: Abstract This article discusses national intelligence as a forecasting tool for political issues. The text presents test and calibration of technology forecasts where factors may influence the evolution science technology. essence is presented “top-down” benchmark methodology that guides “bottom-up” assessment work. details argues contemporary environment has created risk-aversed culture which practically hybrid traditional methods, soft quantitative analysis risk management. paper underlines several concepts characterizing trends in intelligence, most them belong to counter-terror can be used creation new paradigm aimed future trajectories broad societal questions. These questions often refer issues are related limited number actors rare events. methods robust planning scenario tools handle current highly uncertain environment.