Using real options for urban infrastructure adaptation under climate change

摘要: Abstract Climate uncertainties pose a problem for decision makers as they cannot choose and implement an effective adaptation strategy in infrastructure. An can be derived only when the potential damage induced by climate change is well understood. This study proposed decision-making model to evaluate economic feasibility of projects urban area. The scenarios technical factors were used calculate volatility that reflects reduction relies on type real options, called “chooser option”, consider managerial flexibility long-term management estimate value investment with reasonable accuracy based representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. A case involving disaster prevention facility Seoul, Korea was conducted demonstrate model’s applicability. expected provide guidance development strategies