Asymmetric dispersal is a critical element of concordance between biophysical dispersal models and spatial genetic structure in Great Barrier Reef corals

摘要: Aim: Widespread coral bleaching, crown-of-thorns seastar outbreaks, and tropical storms all threaten foundational species of the Great Barrier Reef, with impacts differing over time space. Yet, dispersal via larval propagules could aid reef recovery by supplying new settlers enabling spread adaptive variation among regions. Documenting predicting spatial connections arising from planktonic in marine species, however, remains a formidable challenge. Location: The Australia. Methods: Contemporary biophysical models were used to predict long-distance multigenerational for two common (Acropora tenuis Acropora millepora). Spatially extensive genetic surveys allowed us infer signatures asymmetric these evaluate concordance against expectations using coalescent simulations, directions inferred gene flow, eigenvector modelling. Results: At long distances, predicted preponderance north-south results matched expectations: simulations rejected an alternative scenario historical isolation; strongest signals flow north-south; eigenvectors derived significantly better predictors patterns than symmetric null models. Main conclusions: Results are consistent yielding approximate summaries past conditioned upon directionality connections. For A. millepora, northern central reefs have been important sources downstream southern recent evolutionary should continue provide southward flow. Endemic diversity suggests substantial local recruitment lack south north.