Response of Asiatic Ibex (Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios

摘要: We investigated the effects of climate change on distribution Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) in eastern Tajikistan. No existing studies have been conducted habitat a wild goat species Asia. ecological niche modelling to compare potential present and future distributions suitable environmental conditions for ibex. Projecting 2070, 18% (2689 km2) current areas would be lost, mostly located southeastern northwestern regions study area. However, new habitats could expand outside range —about 30% (4595 expansion until 2070. found that elevation, terrain roughness, seasonal temperature, precipitation warmest quarter were most important factors models had strong correlations distribution. The losses portion overlapped locations region. These observed much lower elevations area (3500 m 4000 m). When considering both loss gain, see net habitats. About (1379 average gains 2070 showed shift northern temperature Our results are beneficial planning biodiversity conservation mountain region Tajikistan under scenarios. Special attention should given populations region, where become unsuitable as result climate-induced ecosystem.