Food security for an ageing and heavier population

摘要: Changes in national and global food demand are commonly explained by population growth, dietary shifts, waste. Although nutrition sciences demonstrate that biophysical characteristics determine requirements individuals, medical demographic studies provide evidence for large shifts height, weight, age structure worldwide, the aggregated effects poorly understood. Here, a type–cohort–time stock model is applied to analyze combined effect of changes adult 186 countries between 1975–2014. The average 2014 was 14% heavier, 1.3% taller, 6.2% older, had 6.1% higher energy than 1975. Across countries, individuals’ weight gains ranged 6–33%, needs increased 0.9–16%. Noteworthy, some highest lowest increases coexist within Africa Asia, signaling disparities these regions. Globally, 129% during studied period. Population growth contributed with 116%; height accounted 15%; meanwhile, aging phenomenon counteracted rise −2%. This net additional 13% corresponded 286 million adults. Since biodemographic cumulative, we can expect observed inertia extend into future. work shows considering evolving individual jointly sociodemographic contribute more robust resource security assessments. Commonly used static homogenous caloric values per capita might lead misrepresentations actual needs. What previous analyses could have estimated as availability, sufficiency, or surplus waste actually be sequestered mass human lot. Based on discovered trends, feeding nine billion people 2050 will require significantly total calories same today.