Achieving absolute decoupling? Comparing biophysical scenarios and macro-economic modelling results

摘要: Most economic models struggle to incorporate biophysical relationships between materials, energy and emissions, in order appropriately deal with constraints of supply (and possibly also demand). After the incorporation constraints, some functions produced surprising or even highly implausible results. These results have been checked against expert judgement plausibility, assumptions refomulated removed secure consistency, adjusted take care adequacy plausibility outcomes model specifications. A number efforts were made check consistency modelling fundamental functional interdependencies on level scenarios presented earlier papers (Milestones MS35 - published as WWWforEurope Working Paper no. 25; MS36 unpublished). This usually required extensive communication research teams re-formulation certain parameters, semi-empirical assumptions. Methodologically, such interdisciplinary cross-checking is a novel time-consuming exercise. process highlights limitations existing interdependencies, vice versa still very limited ability explore ranges flexibility imposed upon changing Furthermore this ongoing collaboration showed that specification baseline scenario about efficiency gains well developments factor productivity technical change are influential each scenario. Therefore 'realistic' critical reflection actual feasability trajectories deemed necessary.