Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experiences, and insights

摘要: Probability encoding is the process of extracting and quantifying subjective judgments about uncertain quantities. In early 1970s, Decision Analysis Group at SRI International recommended a formal for probability based on structured interview between trained interviewer subject. Additional methods have been developed processing encoded probabilities to facilitate their use in decision analysis calculations. The its extensions are reviewed, some examples insights regarding techniques that analysts found effective judgmental uncertainty presented.