Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues.

摘要: Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead reduced adaptation of the natural ecosystems and/or increased agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying width location co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat six most Aegilops species Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, considering two migration hypotheses climate scenarios (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). Overall, general decline suitable climatic conditions for outside European zone parallel increase Europe predicted. If no occur, was predicted be more acute than within zone. The potential level by at higher rate richness, expansions three countries, are currently among top four producers Europe: Russia, France Ukraine. results also discussed with regard conservation issues these relatives.