Large scale spatially explicit modeling of blue and green water dynamics in a temperate mid-latitude basin

摘要: Abstract Looking only at climate change impacts provides partial information about a changing hydrologic regime. Understanding the spatio-temporal nature of in processes, and explicit contributions from both land use drivers, holds more practical value for water resources management policy intervention. This study presents comprehensive assessment on trend Blue Water (BW) Green (GW) 490,000 km2 temperate mid-latitude basin (Ohio River Basin) over past 80 years (1935–2014), thereon, quantifies combined as well relative changes. The Soil Assessment Tool (SWAT) is adopted to simulate fluxes. Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen statistical tests are performed modeled outputs detect respectively magnitude changes three different spatial scales – entire basin, regional level, sub-basin level. Despite overall volumetric increase BW GW their annual average values during period simulation reveal distinctive pattern. has increased significantly upper lower parts which can be related prominent those areas. part, likely being associated with notable precipitation there. Furthermore, under time-varying but constant scenario identifies Ohio Basin influential BW, while impact relatively nominal GW; whereas, increases remarkably, counterproductive BW. approach quantify combined/relative effects shown this replicated understand BW-GW dynamics similar large basins around globe.