作者: H.L. Rustigian , M.V. Santelmann , N.H. Schumaker
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摘要: An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The included both breeding and upland habitat incorporated effects climatic variation demographic stochasticity. Data requirements include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, affinities, as well land use landcover geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according change breeder abundance, saturation, distribution, compared baseline conditions. Sensitivity simulation results changes parameters also examined. Simulated suggest that while all modeled are likely persist under present scenario conditions, may be more at risk from landscape change. Although study widespread generalists regarded having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands ponds, increasingly endangered habitats landscapes. Broader strategies region would ensure these currently common organisms do not become future.