Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate models

摘要: We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application linear forcing-feedback regression analysis Gregory et al. (2004) to ensemble AOGCMs. The range equilibrium climate sensitivity 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud continue be important contributors this range. Some show small deviations from a dependence top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. that phenomenon largely arises shortwave effects over ocean consistent with independent estimates using fixed sea-surface methods. Moreover, we suggest future research should focus more understanding transient change, including any time-scale and/or feedback, rather than response large instantaneous forcing.