Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport from equatorial Southeast Asian Maritime Continent to the Philippines: First comparison of ensemble analysis with in situ observations

摘要: Atmospheric transport of smoke from equatorial Southeast Asian Maritime Continent (Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia) to the Philippines was recently verified by first-ever measurement aerosol composition in region Sulu Sea a research vessel named Vasco. However, numerical modeling such can have large uncertainties due lack observations for parameterization schemes describing fire emission meteorology this region. These are analyzed here, first time, with an ensemble twenty-four WRF-Chem simulations. The reproduces time series observed surface non-sea-salt PM2.5 concentrations Vasco during 17 - 30 September 2011, overall agrees satellite (CALIPSO MODIS) AERONET data. difference between NCEP's FNL ECMWF's ERA renders biggest spread (up 20 µg m-3 or 200% PM2.5), showing systematically superior results. second uncertainty is emissions; 2-day maximum FLAMBE than instantaneous one. While Grell-Devenyi (G3) Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) cumulus only produce 3 µg m-3 over Sea, mean best CMORPH's spatial distribution precipitation. Simulation FNL-G3, 800-m injection height outperforms other members. Finally, global model (NAAPS) all simulations on 20 Sep. suggesting challenges tropical at mesoscale finer scale.