Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?

摘要: Abstract R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential technological change focus on average returns to research development (R&D) for a composite technology contain little or no information about distribution – which could be important capturing range costs associated climate mitigation policies by individual technologies. Through study patent citation data, this paper adds literature outcomes energy focusing behavior successful innovations six technologies, allowing us determine whether uncertainty differences in technologies matter success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare results from aggregate analysis technology-by-technology Our show that existing work assumes diminishing but one generic too simplistic misses between more less Second, use quantile regression techniques learn patents have high positive error term our regressions is, receive many citations than predicted based observable characteristics. find across rather quantiles within are important. The value persists longer those providing evidence success culmination several advances building upon another, resulting single breakthrough. Diminishing activities appear problematic during rapid increases investment, such as experienced solar 1970s.