Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments

摘要: In the present study, we analyze magnitude and frequency of long-term droughts throughout century in Catalonia north-eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain). fact, this western Mediterranean region has recently suffered one most extreme dry episodes (2006–2008) last decades. This calls for further study future perspectives drought variability at local scale. We selected three medium-sized catchments on Catalan littoral: Fluvia, Tordera Siurana. employed both instrumental simulated temperature rainfall data to calculate two multi-scalar indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Evapotranspiration (SPEI). Instrumental consisted several weather stations a recent period: 1984–2008. Future projections covering 2001–2100 period were extracted from dynamical downscaling procedure 15-km horizontal grid resolution, nesting mesoscale model MM5 into atmosphere–ocean coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM, performed by Meteorological Service Catalonia. calculated 24-month SPI SPEI values periods, no changes found early twenty-first century. For mid-century, high climatic was detected, as extremely wet periods might alternate according values. At end century, generally particularly catchment southern Catalonia, Siurana, more severe longer than (2006–2008). There is need implement appropriate specific adaptation strategies water management each over next decades reduce risk forecasted conditions.