Judgment under uncertainty: A progress report on the training of probability assessors

摘要: In prescriptive analyses of decisions under uncertainty, decision makers and their expert advisors are often called upon to assess judgmental probability distributions quantities whose values unknown them. This chapter discusses some empirical findings addressed such questions as: How well can untrained individuals perform assessments? Do they manifest certain recurrent biases? assessors be calibrated? taught become better assessors? deals only with assessments uncertain that thought as taking on a continuum possible values. Hence we shall work exclusively univariate density functions cumulative distribution functions. Several different procedures available for assessing continuous, random variables, but consider one particular procedure our colleagues have used in practice. It is the method direct fractile .