Agricultural nutrient loading under alternative climate, societal and manure recycling scenarios.

摘要: Abstract This paper introduces a framework for extending global climate and socioeconomic scenarios in order to study agricultural nutrient pollution on an individual catchment scale. Our builds extends Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Shared Socioeconomic (SSPs) at the spatial temporal scales that are relevant drivers of animal husbandry, manure recycling application inorganic fertilisers crop production. case area is Aura river South-West Finland, which discharges into heavily eutrophic Baltic Sea. The has intensive agriculture – both livestock Locally adjusted interpreted were used as inputs field-level economic optimisation how farmers might react changing markets conditions under different SSPs. results economically optimal fertilisation levels then spatially temporally explicit loading model (VEMALA). Alternative strategies matched with SSP narratives studied means reduce phosphorus (P) overfertilisation areas high density. According our simulations, average P loads increased by 18% during 2071–2100 from current level variation between was large (from -14% +50%). By contrast, nitrogen (N) had decreased -9% (with -20% +3%) end century. Phosphorus most sensitive speed change. Nitrogen less changes drivers.