Interpreting variation to advance predictive restoration science

摘要: Summary Ecological restoration is a global priority that holds great potential for benefiting natural ecosystems, but outcomes are notoriously unpredictable. Resolving this unpredictability represents major, critical challenge to the science of ecology. In an effort move ecology toward more predictive science, we consider key issue variability. Typically, vary relative goals (i.e. reference or desired future conditions) and with respect other efforts. The field has largely considered only this first type variation, often focusing on oversimplified success vs. failure dichotomy. causes particularly among efforts, remain poorly understood most systems. Variation associated consequence how, where when conducted; variation also influenced by how outcome measured. We propose should decrease number factors constraining increase specificity goal. When (e.g. harsh environmental conditions, limited species reintroductions) preclude species, little will exist restorations, metrics such as physical structure, may be broadly interchangeable. Conversely, few constraints membership exist, substantial result pronounced assessed taxonomic composition. Synthesis applications. variability observe during results from both context (how, conducted) evaluate outcomes. To advance capacity restoration, outline research agenda considers outcomes, drivers existing experiments quantify understand in development models organise, interpret forecast