The Effect of China on Mexico-U.S. Trade: Undoing NAFTA?

摘要: Abstract Chinese trade flows have increased uninterruptedly in the last two decades as a consequence of China’s “open door” and economic liberalization policies undertaken since late 1970s. This surge exports has raised concerns among many developing countries competing with China same sectors/products. In this paper we focus on competitive effects Mexico’s to its most important market, United States. Although long enjoyed larger export shares products such footwear, toys, lamps lighting fittings, luggage, recently it also surpassed Mexico other sectors computer hardware. Despite privileged tariff status set by NAFTA, seems be loosing U.S. market share China. Using detailed data at product line (HS-8) assess which extent can explain trends observed Mexican We exploit variation NAFTA preferences level shifters elasticity total imports. While did favor U.S., these seem been negatively affected years.