Simulation of Construction Project Duration

摘要: MUD (model for uncertainty determination) will simulate the progress under of typical construction project on which activity durations are not independent each other. Monte Carlo simulation models effects uncertainties that calendar date. Daily uncertain weather is simulated using historical data. Activity criticalities computed times. The samples from multiple simulations a combined by to calculate range estimate (mean and standard duration) durations, times, criticality. A small example illustrates some capabilities MUD.