Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

摘要: Summary The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin Iran using a model already built calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for baseline scenario. Results from scenario show water demands will be supplied at cost depletion surface ground resources, making undesirable unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Meta (supply demand management) are selected study. They developed declared into assess evaluate imminent status basin. Certain strategies employed purpose improve rectify current management policies. five performance criteria time-based volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, maximum deficit process analysis evaluation. obtained summed up so-called ‘Water Resources Sustainability Index’ facilitate comparison among likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising historical data, policies, rainfall-runoff model, priorities, considered proposed conceptual framework modeled appropriate approaches. Management can used upon supply but it no tangible effects on improvement resources region. In regard, found more effective than one although still remains unacceptable. indicate both must applied if safeguarded against degradation depletion. other words, necessary not adequate; rather, coupled Finally, shown applying sustainably.