Suitability, success and sinks: how do predictions of nesting distributions relate to fitness parameters in high arctic waders?

摘要: Aim Although habitat suitability maps derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are often assumed to highlight locations that can sustain healthy populations over time, the relationship between scores and fitness parameters has rarely been tested thoroughly. Location Zackenberg Valley, north-east Greenland. Methods Using 14 years of data (1997–2010) representing three wader (dunlin Calidris alpina, sanderling alba ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres), we relationships modelled at nesting locations. Results Among examined, only exhibited significant nest success, but time rather than space. During years with extensive snow cover in landscape, sites occurred different habitats were typically used across years. Moreover, cover, initiated nests later suffered higher egg predation rates. Main conclusion Our results suggest SDMs occurrences include low reproductive success may over-estimate potential suitable landscape. Whenever possible, variation should be considered when building inform species' response environmental change.