Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to abiotic conditions

摘要: Abstract Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected land use practices and invasive species. Loss of sagebrush decline associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, a concern to managers conservationists. However, regeneration remains difficult achieve restoration reclamation efforts there is no simulation model available. We present here first process-based, daily time-step, predict yearly including relevant germination seedling responses abiotic factors. estimated values, uncertainty, importance 27 parameters using total 1435 site-years observation. Our explained 74% variability number years with successful at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting success/failure. results identify specific future research needed improve our understanding regeneration, data subspecies level improved parameter estimates for start seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time germination, soil water potential influences. found that relationships between climate conditions were site specific, varying across distribution sagebrush. This indicates statistical models based on unsuitable range-wide patterns or assessing consequences changing underscores value this process-based model. used range United States, confirmed survival limiting factor, whereas not. suggested modeled suitability necessary but not sufficient explain presence. conclude assessment change will need account regenerative stages understanding, provided