When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems

摘要: Climate adaptation decisions are difficult because the future climate is deeply uncertain. Combined with uncertainties concerning cost, lifetime, and effectiveness of measures, this implies that net benefits alternative strategies ambiguous. On one hand, a simple analysis disregards uncertainty might lead to near-term choices later regretted if circumstances differ from those assumed. other careful uncertainty-based decision analyses can be costly in personnel time not make difference. This paper considers two questions managers ask. First, what type most appropriate for particular decision? We answer question by proposing six-step screening procedure compare usefulness predict-then-act analysis, multi-scenario without adaptive options, incorporating options. A tutorial application presented using trees. However, may cumbersome face several problems simultaneously. Hence, second how quickly identify would benefit thorough analysis? To address question, we propose ranks multiple terms necessity value comprehensive analysis. Analysis then emphasize highest-ranking problems. illustrated ranking Chesapeake Bay region. The complementary procedures proposed here help focus analytical efforts where they will useful.