OPTIMAL TIMING OF SALVAGE HARVEST IN RESPONSE TO A STOCHASTIC INFESTATION

摘要: Following a catastrophic disturbance, forest managers may choose to perform salvage harvest recoup timber losses. When the disturbance process evolves stochas- tically, unique option value arises associated with sal- vage decision. This represents of postponing gain more information about process. paper uses real options ap- proach determine how much forested area must be in- fested trigger when provides both and nontimber values. Analytical results indi- cate slower rates recovery will optimally delay while areas large values where are sensitive presence dead dying trees should harvested immediately. The model is applied mountain pine beetle outbreak in Idaho's Sawtooth National Forest using readily available aerial detection survey data.