Beyond the status-quo: research on Bayesian reasoning must develop in both theory and method

摘要: Judgements in the real-world often inherently involve uncertainty, from mundane: "do those clouds signal rain?" to potentially life-changing: "Does this person have cancer?" Normatively estimating likelihood of outcomes such situations involves considering how competing sources probabilistic evidence ("how likely are with/without rain?") should be weighed against prior probabilities is it rain/not rain?"), known as Bayesian reasoning. This complex form reasoning, however, typically eludes many people, and can dramatic implications including overdiagnosis (e.g., Casscells et al., 1978), wrongful conviction famous Sally Clark case UK. See Nobles Schiff, 2007). Whilst question best assist people make judgments remains critical need research Navarrete 2014), paper considers extant on facilitation has been somewhat constrained by both theoretical, methodological status-quos. As Mandel (2014) notes, more general terms we still know relatively little about "what 'be Bayesian'," which clear for our understanding works why" intervention. contemplates several suggestions may improve its pursuit goal, deconstructing reasoning into component tasks, leveraging process-oriented measures further integrate burgeoning findings concerning individual cognitive differences.