Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System.

摘要: Birds in U.S. national parks find strong protection from many longstanding and pervasive threats, but remain highly exposed to effects of ongoing climate change. To understand how change is likely alter bird communities parks, we used species distribution models relating North American Breeding Bird Survey (summer) Audubon Christmas Count (winter) observations data the early 2000s projected 2041–2070 (hereafter, mid-century) under high low greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP8.5 RCP2.6. We analyzed suitability projections over time for 513 across 274 classifying them as improving, worsening, stable, potential colonization, extirpation. are become increasingly important birds coming decades colonizations exceed extirpations 62–100% with an average ratio 4.1 winter 1.4 summer RCP8.5. Average turnover 23% both Species (Bray-Curtis) colonization extirpation rates positively correlated latitude contiguous 48 states. Parks Midwest Northeast expected see particularly All patterns more extreme than Based on extirpation, were classified into overall trend groups associated specific climate-informed conservation strategies. Substantial ecological anticipated decades, current thinking suggests managing towards a forward-looking concept integrity that accepts novel conditions, rather focusing management goals exclusively maintaining or restoring static set historical conditions.