Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

摘要: Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect biodiversity interspecific relationships small mammals are necessary pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set online occurrence records machine learning methods create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species (rodents shrews) across Models formed basis sets species-specific maps 2010 were projected forward using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Change) A2 scenario predict distributions same 2100. found that cold-climate, northern, interior mammal experienced large decreases area while shifting northward, upward elevation, inland state. In contrast, many southern continental expanded throughout Alaska, also moved down-slope toward coast. Statewide remained constant 15 but distributional shifts resulted novel several regions. Overall patterns similar both time frames, followed general movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Seward Peninsula Beaufort Coastal Plain western Brooks Range modest gains richness as shifted form assemblages. Quantitative projections should help land managers develop adaptive strategies conserving dispersal corridors, biodiversity, ecosystem functionality into future.