A Weibull-PBPK model for assessing risk of arsenic-induced skin lesions in children

摘要: Chronic arsenic exposure and skin lesions (keratosis hyperpigmentation) are inextricably linked. This paper was to quantify the children risks further recommend safe drinking water standard based on reported epidemiological data. We linked Weibull dose-response function a physiologically pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model estimate concentrations perform risk characterization. calculated odds ratios (ORs) assess relative magnitude of effect likelihood prevalence by calculating proposed Weibull-based exposed control groups associated with age group-specific PBPK predicted dimethylarsinite (MMA(III)) levels in urine. Positive relationships between exposures cumulative were found using (r2=0.91-0.96). that standards recommended be 2.2 1 microg/L for male 6 2.8 female 0-6 7-18 years groups, respectively, hyperpigmentation an excess 10(-3) 75 lifetime exposure. Risk predictions indicate estimated ORs have 95% confidence intervals 1.33-5.12, 1.74-19.15, 2.81-19.27 mean contents 283.19, 282.65, 468.81 microg/L, West Bengal, India, Bangladesh, southwestern Taiwan. Our findings also suggest increasing urinary monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) increase arsenic-induced lesions.