Numerical simulation of the impacts of climate warming on a permafrost mound

摘要: A finite-element, one-dimensional, heat conduction model, which takes thaw settlement into account following drainage of excess water produced by the melt ice lenses at permafrost boundaries, is used to assess thermal response a mound in Northern Quebec different scenarios climate warming. In addition cryostratigraphy mound, unfrozen content, conductivity and volumetric capacity marine sediments comprising were integrated simulation. Warming rates from 0.03 0.01°C/year are predicted for gradual linear increase mean annual air temperature 0.05°C/year over 100 year period. Downward thawing occurs table 1–13 cm/year but there also upward base 2.4–5.8 cm/year. The not with time. At end period, was 1.4 m active layer 3.22 m thick talik 1.46 m thick. This comparison an 2.14 m 1.86 m if considered simulation. Thaw settlement, direct result melting permafrost, brings nearer surface accelerates its thawing. It should be included any numerical Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.