Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

摘要: OBJECTIVES Understanding the intra-urban spatial dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission is important to effectively guide vector control. Ovitraps are a sensitive, cost-effective surveillance tool, yet few longitudinal studies have evaluated ovitrap indices occurrence. We aimed assess patterns incidence Ae. aegypti positivity index (OPI) over time examine relationship between these two variables. METHODS This study used 12 years (2007-2018) case records biweekly data in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. aggregated by year health centre catchment area (n = 152) both univariate bivariate global Moran's I statistic LISA evaluate clustering. RESULTS Annual ranged from 18 6262/100 000 residents displayed autocorrelation 10/12 years, with shifting areas high incidence. OPI 35.7 47.6% was clustered all years, but unlike had consistent time. Bivariate analysis found positive (6/12 years) negative (1/12 years) associations CONCLUSIONS Low detected presence not limiting factor transmission. However, stable distribution suggests that certain may persistent breeding sites. Future research should identify factors related hotspots better management. Vector control efforts be paired additional on population immunity, circulating serotypes urban predict outbreaks.