The effect of phenotypic variation on metapopulation persistence

摘要: Demographic stochasticity (due to the probabilistic nature of birth–death process) and demographic heterogeneity (between-individual differences in parameters) have long been seen as factors affecting extinction risk. While can be independent underlying species traits, may strongly depend on phenotypic variation. However, how variation affect risk is largely unknown. Here, I develop a stochastic metapopulation model that takes into account effects traits controlling colonization rates assess what effect persistence metapopulation. Although lead decrease under some conditions, it also an increase whenever mismatch—or distance between optimal trait value population mean—is large. This mismatch turn arise from variety ecological evolutionary reasons, including weak selection or recent history invasion. Last, has deterministic component rates, through but both are important understand overall effect. These results implications for conservation threatened management practices historically overlooked unimportant noise around mean values interest.