Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

摘要: Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, productivity, which turn could alter biological social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes future biogeochemical variables over marine biota their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by concentration pathways until 2100 showed that entire world's surface will be simultaneously impacted varying intensities warming, acidification, depletion, or shortfalls productivity. In contrast, only small fraction surface, mostly polar regions, experience increased oxygenation while almost nowhere there cooling pH elevation. compiled distribution 32 habitats biodiversity hotspots found they would all exposure to multiple variables. This superposition highlights high risk synergistic ecosystem responses, suite physiological adaptations needed cope with change, potential reorganization patterns. If co-occurring influence delivery goods services, then also have considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 870 million poorest people world rely heavily food, jobs, revenues live countries most affected biogeochemistry. These results highlight degradation ecosystems associated hardship expected following current trends anthropogenic emissions.