Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States

摘要: The authors show that historical property damage losses from US hurricanes contain climate signals. methodology is based on a statistical model combines specification for the number of loss events with amount per event. Separate models are developed annual and extreme losses. A Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure used to generate posterior samples models. Results indicate chance at least one event increases when springtime north–south surface pressure gradient over North Atlantic weaker than normal, ocean warmer El Nino absent, sunspots few. However, given event, magnitude annum related only temperature. 50-year return level largest under scenario featuring warm Ocean, weak gradient, Nino, few sunspots. work provides framework anticipating hurricane seasonal multi-year time scales.