Future progress in artificial intelligence: a poll among experts

摘要: In some quarters, there is intense concern about high--level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity; other these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, probability best experts currently assign within particular time--frame, which they see that development how fast developing. thus designed brief questionnaire distributed four groups experts. Overall, results show an agreement among systems will probably reach overall human ability around 2040--2050 move on superintelligence less than 30 years thereafter. The say one three this turns out be 'bad' 'extremely bad' humanity.