Use of epidemiologic risk modeling to evaluate control of foot-and-mouth disease in southern Thailand

摘要: Objective—To assess the impacts of introduction foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and various FMD control programs in southern Thailand. Animals—A native population 562,910 cattle 33,088 buffalo as well 89,294 animals legally transported into Thailand. Procedures—A quantitative risk assessment was used to ascertain probability introduction, an intrinsic dynamic model impacts. Value for transmission rate (β) estimated. Five scenarios created nonstructural protein (NSP) testing, mass vaccination, culling were examined. Impacts assessed through examination estimated annual cumulative incidence (ACI) FMD. The ACIs compared by use Tukey Studentized range technique. Results—β at 0.115. Approximately 35,000 cases would be expected from baseline situation. A 30% reduction ACI detected with NSP antibody testing. Prophylactic vaccination resulted 85% ACI. Concurrent testing reduced 96%, addition eradication policy a slightly greater decrease (98%). Conclusions Clinical Relevance—The study epidemiologic models investigate interventions. Results suggested that has more impact than Use test during peak seasons, whereas diminished underlying incidence. best mitigation plan integrated strategic multiple techniques.