Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment

摘要: Abstract We examine market behavior in a series of cobweb-like experiments. As previous studies we find no cyclicality the simple supply lag design with five players. Step by step add investment lags and capacity vintages, thus external validity to basic design. complexity increases, prices become autocorrelated cyclical tendencies. Regressions simulations suggest that players put too little weight on vintages when making decisions. Different from original cobweb design, adaptive price expectations do not suffice eliminate fluctuations. Thus, our experiment indicates is well suited test endogenous theories commodity markets.