Estimation of probabilistic flood inundation maps for an extreme event: Pánuco river, México.

摘要: This investigation evaluates the effects of hydrological uncertainty in results flood extent estimates during incidence a tropical storm. For this, methodology is comprised field measurements, elevation data, distributed model and standard two-dimensional numerical model. Uncertainty considered through estimation possible hydrographs from precipitation data registered an extreme event. The characterisation run-off by multiple possibilities opens door to probabilistic maps, enabling consideration uncertainties their propagation estimated extension. It shown that storm Arlene, flooded area similar what was satellite imagery. Although does not consider all may be involved determination area, it reflected favours preventive action generation management strategies. selected approach first iteration production fully quantified analysis risk, especially where there are doubts about how catchment responds given