Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data.

摘要: We present two simple, semi-quantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of First Fourteen days Incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate likelihood and consequences, respectively, ultimate size an ongoing FMD epidemic. tools allow risk assessors communicate timely, objectively efficiently managers less technically inclined stakeholders about potential introducing suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore FFI-principle with complementary field data, we analyzed outbreaks in Argentina 2001, 17 affected provinces as units observation. Two different vaccination strategies were applied during this extended In a series 5,000 Danish simulated epidemics, numbers outbreak herds at Day 14 end epidemics estimated under control strategies. simplify optimize presentation resulting data for urgent decisions be made by managers, sensitivity, specificity well negative positive predictive values, using chosen Day-14 number predictor magnitude remaining post-Day-14 continued basic strategy. Furthermore, outbreak, actual cumulative detected infected will known exactly. Among lasting >14 out simulations scenario, selected those assumed accumulated 14. distribution minus was more than days. For comparison, same done identical (i.e., seeded primary herds) scenario. results indicate that, course epidemic, predictions epidemic benefits alternative can presented other objective easily communicable ways.