A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle

摘要: Does the termination probability of a business expansion or contraction increase with age? This question may be formally addressed by analyzing nature duration dependence in aggregate economic activity. Our null hypothesis is that there no dependence, which we test via intentionally nonparametric procedures. We also argue common notion cycle periodicity can usefully interpreted terms whole-cycle dependence. find some evidence for whole cycles and prewar expansions, but little elsewhere.