Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins

作者: Vivek K. Arora , George J. Boer

DOI: 10.1029/2000JD900620

关键词:

摘要: Changes in the climatology of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture lead also to changes runoff streamflow. The potential effects global warming on hydrology 23 major rivers are investigated. simulated by Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model current is routed through river system mouth compared with results warmer occur towards end century. mean discharge, amplitude phase annual streamflow cycle, maximum discharge (the flood) its standard deviation, flow duration curves all examined. flood magnitudes different return periods estimated using extreme value analysis. In climate, there a general decrease 15 out considered experience reduction (with median 32%). not uniform increases 8 increase 13%). Middle- high-latitude typically show marked their cycle associated snowfall an earlier spring melt climate. Low-latitude exhibit but modest cycle. analysis that 17 (a 20%). used characterize kinds behavior exhibited groups rivers. Differences regional distribution precipitation control simulation currently limit application approach. inferred hydrological are, nevertheless, plausible consistent responses evapotranspiration indicate could

参考文章(46)
J. R. M. Hosking, L‐Moments: Analysis and Estimation of Distributions Using Linear Combinations of Order Statistics Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological. ,vol. 52, pp. 105- 124 ,(1990) , 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01775.X
Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Andrew W. Wood, Richard N. Palmer, Eric F. Wood, Eugene Z. Stakhiv, Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective Climatic Change. ,vol. 43, pp. 537- 579 ,(1999) , 10.1023/A:1005448007910
R. P. C. Brown, N. W. Arnell, N. S. Reynard, Impact of climatic variability and change on river flow regimes in the UK ,(1990)
G. M. Flato, G. J. Boer, W. G. Lee, N. A. McFarlane, D. Ramsden, M. C. Reader, A. J. Weaver, The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 16, pp. 451- 467 ,(2000) , 10.1007/S003820050339
F Bouraoui, G Vachaud, LZX Li, H Le Treut, T Chen, None, Evaluation of the impact of climate changes on water storage and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 15, pp. 153- 161 ,(1999) , 10.1007/S003820050274
Vivek K. Arora, Francis H. S. Chiew, Rodger B. Grayson, A river flow routing scheme for general circulation models Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. ,vol. 104, pp. 14347- 14357 ,(1999) , 10.1029/1999JD900200
S. Manabe, R. T. Wetherald, R. J. Stouffer, Summer dryness due to an increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration Climatic Change. ,vol. 3, pp. 347- 386 ,(1981) , 10.1007/BF02423242
K. J. A. Revfeim, J. W. D. Hessell, More realistic distributions for extreme wind gusts Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ,vol. 110, pp. 505- 514 ,(1984) , 10.1002/QJ.49711046412
John F. B. Mitchell, Greenhouse Warming: Is the Mid-Holocene a Good Analogue? Journal of Climate. ,vol. 3, pp. 1177- 1192 ,(1990) , 10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<1177:GWITMH>2.0.CO;2