作者: Vivek K. Arora , George J. Boer
DOI: 10.1029/2000JD900620
关键词:
摘要: Changes in the climatology of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture lead also to changes runoff streamflow. The potential effects global warming on hydrology 23 major rivers are investigated. simulated by Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model current is routed through river system mouth compared with results warmer occur towards end century. mean discharge, amplitude phase annual streamflow cycle, maximum discharge (the flood) its standard deviation, flow duration curves all examined. flood magnitudes different return periods estimated using extreme value analysis. In climate, there a general decrease 15 out considered experience reduction (with median 32%). not uniform increases 8 increase 13%). Middle- high-latitude typically show marked their cycle associated snowfall an earlier spring melt climate. Low-latitude exhibit but modest cycle. analysis that 17 (a 20%). used characterize kinds behavior exhibited groups rivers. Differences regional distribution precipitation control simulation currently limit application approach. inferred hydrological are, nevertheless, plausible consistent responses evapotranspiration indicate could