Impacts of Heterogeneous Host Densities and Contact Rates on Pathogen Transmission in the Channel Island Fox (Urocyon littoralis).

摘要: Diseases threaten wildlife populations worldwide and have caused severe declines resulting in host species being listed as threatened or endangered. The risk of a widespread epidemic is especially high when pathogens are introduced to naive populations, often leading morbidity mortality. Prevention control these epidemics based on knowledge what drives pathogen transmission among hosts. Previous disease outbreaks suggest the spread directly transmitted determined by contact rates local density. While theoretical models typically assume constant density, most occur at variety densities across landscape. We explored how spatial heterogeneity density influences simulating introduction rabies canine distemper spatially heterogeneous population Channel Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis), coupling fox with probabilities viral transmission. For both diseases, outcome introductions varied widely simulation iterations depended hosts site introduction. Introductions into areas higher resulted more rapid greater impact than if was lower densities. Both were extirpated substantial fraction iterations. Rabies over five times likely go locally extinct low sites host-density sites, leaving an average >99% uninfected. Canine went >98% regardless site, but only after >90% had become infected. Our results highlight difficulty predicting course epidemic, part due complex interactions between biology behavior, exacerbated variation populations.