Proactive or reactive? Optimal management of an invasive forest pest in a spatial framework

摘要: This paper offers a preliminary investigation into the conditions under which it might be optimal to engage in proactive management of non-timber forest resource presence an invasive species whose spread is unaffected by action. Proactive defined as treating uninfected area order encourage healthy ecosystem function, given that arrival inevitable. Inspired problem white pine blister rust Rocky Mountain west, model was solved varying assumptions concerning scale action, benefit and costs, discount rate, uncertainty spread. Results showed strategies tended when, ceteris paribus, a) more resources are available for treatment; b) costs treatment rapidly increasing health, or conversely, benefits unhealthy stands relatively similar; c) rate low. The introduction did not significantly affect likelihood strategy being optimal, but show conditional probabilities infection play important role decision stand should treated if choice manager.